来源：Nature Cities, DOI: 10.1038/s44284-026-00493-1

论文链接：//www.nature.com/articles/s44284-026-00493-1

作者：Yuanyuan Yang, Wenkai Bao, Yuyu Wei, Mingying Yang, Alex de Sherbinin, Yansui Liu

摘要：

Rural–urban transition zones are intensive frontiers of global urbanization, where immense social and ecological pressures converge over relatively limited areas. Despite evidence on the processes involved and impacts of rural to urban transitions, the dynamics of the transitioning zones remain underexplored. Here we frame the zones as transitional social-ecological systems and quantify their resilience. Specifically, we use cross-sectional comparisons and temporal (2000–2020) analyses in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei urban agglomeration, China, to assess the resilience of the transitional social-ecological systems as they shift from being rural to being urban. We find low resilience in these transitioning zones, with resilience declining across system boundaries and a temporary loss of resilience preceding the ‘regime shift’ to urbanity, providing archetypical evidence of impending social-ecological systems regime shifts in rural–urban transition contexts. Our study advances understanding of regime shifts by quantifying resilience dynamics in response to rural–urban transitions. Importantly, it also highlights rural–urban transition zones in the global south as critical yet overlooked arenas where instability emerges and where interventions are essential to steer sustainable urbanization.